Posted ByJohnJuly 14, 2015, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, later named the Iran Nuclear Deal was signed by Iran and the countries from P5+1 in Vienna. Its purpose was to open the Iranian facilities and allow experts to observe and control its nuclear program. In return, the severe sanctions on the country’s energy and other industries would be lifted. In 2018, US President Donald Trump withdrew the country from the deal, calling it “horrible” and “one-sided,” reimposing the sanctions almost immediately. Although the other 6 countries and Iran declared readiness and willingness to remain bound by the JCPOA rules, the Middle East country government began to violate them frequently. The presidential elections in the USA and Iran, in 2020-2021, shifted the layers and brought new faces to the world political scene. Democrat Joe Biden became the 46th president of the United States, while on the other side, Ebrahim Raisi was elected with a 72.35% majority.
History of the Agreement
The participants of the JCPOA deal are Iran, on the one side, and the United Nations Security Council permanent members, plus Germany, on the other. The five countries forming the P5 are the USA, China, Russia, France, and the UK. The Nuclear Deal aimed to calm the region and allow Iran to get out from the serious international pressure caused by the 2006 sanctions, including to sell its crude oil more widely. The stringent embargo on several key sectors was imposed due to the Iranian refusal to suspend its uranium enrichment program! Under the JCPOA agreement, Iran was obliged to cut its low-enriched uranium by 98% and fully eliminate its medium-enriched uranium stocks. However, most of the restrictions have an expiry date of 10-15 years. Many countries from the region remained worried about the possibility of having a nuclear-armed neighbor in a few decades!
Cooling Off
In 2017, Republican Donald Trump replaced Democrat Barack Obama after 8 years in the White House. One of Trump’s many controversial decisions was to pull the country out of the JCPOA in 2018. Of course, there were plenty of reasons for that, including the numerous signals from Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region for Iran’s systemic violations of the rules. Sanctions were reimposed, but the P5+1 countries and Iran resisted the provocation and continued to work together.
Unfortunately, that lasted only a few months, and Iran gradually expanded its nuclear program ignoring the JCPOA limitations. Perhaps Trump hoped that with this decision, he would be able to prevent the lifting of the weapon embargo by the UN in 2020. According to what the parties agreed in 2015, the International Atomic Energy Agency had to evaluate and eventually certify that Iran develops only a civilian nuclear program. This would allow the government to resume the conventional weaponry and ballistic missiles transfer.
New Elections – New Course of Action
Although Donald Trump said that the deal did not and will never bring calm and peace, the situation drastically changed only a year after his successor Joe Biden took the seat in the White House. Despite the UAE and Saudi Arabia’s frustration, the United States is on track to return to the JCPOA by renegotiating some of the terms. Iran also looks eager but recognizes the advantage it has in the current situation.
President Biden and the cabinet sought a new deal because of the skyrocketing oil prices due to the Ukrainian crisis and sanctions imposed on Russia. In these stressful times, OPEC+ faces difficulties in regulating the market. At the same time, the 2021-elected president of Iran, Ebrahim Raisi, insists on returning to the original JCPOA deal and respecting the deadlines in it!
Why the Nuclear Deal Is So Important?
Besides the oil market, many people believe that the Iran Nuclear Deal is only important for peace in the region. This is true, but it’s hardly the only reason behind the agreement. For decades, Iran has been one of the most stable countries in the Middle East. It has a complex political system, which is often the basis of the conflicts with the West. The combination of democracy and modern Islamic theocracy is unique, but the support to Hezbollah worries the rest of the world. The two-year negotiations for signing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action should lead to key changes in several areas:
- Suspension of Iran’s nuclear weapons program
- Uranium enriched up to 3.67% only until 2030
- Lifting the bans on oil, gas, petroleum products, and petrochemicals
- Removing the Weapon Embargo over Iran, initially agreed, in 2020
- Facilitating the banking transactions between the Central Bank of Iran and the rest of the world
- Allowing US and European companies to bring their business to Iran.
The Iran Nuclear Deal is of essential importance to many economies in the region, the USA, Europe, and Asia. The possible benefits for the people of Iran are unlimited! Even so, some more religiously oriented parties and organizations in the country oppose it!
The Time Will Show
At the moment, everything is possible, especially if we talk about the possible directions of the current negotiations on a new Iran Nuclear Deal. Russia, one of the sides, is looking more isolated than ever, and for a good reason! However, its close, cordial relations with Iran may ruin president Biden’s attempt to find a solution. Iran needs access to more of the modern western technologies but also strives to avoid foreign political influence. The European Union will probably support the United States in this endeavor, but the question must be, who else will do the same?